So begins the forecast – as the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards are just around the corner. Which network will take home the most awards? Which show will reign supreme?Using Visart software, scholarly insight and publicly available data on major nomination categories we recalled past award trends and made a few predictions for the 2014 Emmy Awards.
So without further ado…
1. Veep Will Win Outstanding Comedy Series
Orange jumpsuits are frequently mentioned in modern television conversation. Though Orange is the New Black and other popular series brought a significant buzz in popular media this year; data supports the claim that Modern Family or Veep are most likely to win.
Each show has a history at the Emmys, either with consecutive wins or nominations. This makes for gridlock competition in this category. On one hand, Modern Family still has more awards than most of its competitive nominees. With four winning years behind, it is reasonable to assume America’s funniest family would win in 2014. However, though Modern Family is the historical winner, there may be a shift leading to Veep’s first win. Where Modern Family has fellow program characters competing for Best Supporting Actor, Veep is nominated for more categories overall. Are we amid a changing time in Outstanding Comedy?
2. Breaking Bad Will Win Outstanding Drama Series
AMC has a stronghold on this category. Buzz around True Detective could be around a while before it ever sees an award; especially with other HBO nominees like Game of Thrones in the same category, splitting the votes.
With the final season wrapped up, this is the last year Breaking Bad will be up for Emmy nomination. This could work in the program’s favor; aggregating more votes against the show’s toughest competition Downton Abbey – whose total nominations outnumber competing candidates in this category.
3. Saturday Night Live Will Win Outstanding Variety Series
Outstanding Variety Series calls for a divide-and-conquer scenario with competing programs belonging to NBC and Comedy Central.
Additional data supports our prediction with Kate Mckinnon racking in another vote – which we consider a more likely chance to win an award for the overall program. In other words, Mckinnon’s acclaim will support Saturday Night Live’s potential win in this category.
4. American Horror Story Will Win Outstanding Miniseries
Yet another moment of internal competition. This category is up in the air, but there’s a good chance this award will go to miniseries veteran, American Horror Story. Rising quickly to television success, Fargo and American Horror Story: Coven are tough contenders – even towards each other.
We also have a battle of the sexes with each series up for either a best actor (Fargo) and actress (AHS:Coven) nominations. What’s more, each series boasts their own probable situations. Where American Horror Story has a stacked cast of supporting female characters – all running for the same award – Fargo has a more diversified nomination portfolio.
5. The Normal Heart Will Win Outstanding Television Movie
Who will win Outstanding Supporting Actress is the better question here. Data shows a clear indication – The Normal Heart will win this category, and possibly many others. There is no historical data to support past trends in this group, but what we do know is HBO’s longstanding success here.
(We’re pretty confident about this one.)
6. The Amazing Race Will Win Outstanding Reality Competition Series
This category has the most leveled playing field of the major categories when observing on a topical level. Each network with a single nomination (in total) one might assume the choice winner will be determined by way of Russian roulette. However, a further look into the data suggests otherwise.
A bird’s eye view of historical data reveals The Amazing Race as a reoccurring winner for the Outstanding Reality-Competition category; collecting a whopping 81% of the total awards from 1993 – 2003. Let’s just call it a hunch – The Amazing Race is a good (hypothetical) bet.
There you have it: our predictions for the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards. We will have to see how accurate the predictions are. But hey, we want to hear from you. What are your predictions?.